‘UFC on FOX 4: Shogun vs. Vera’ preview and predictions (Preliminary Card)
The UFC returns to FOX this weekend, as ‘UFC on FOX 4: Shogun vs. Vera’ goes down at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California and due to several last-minute injuries and withdrawals, we’re left with just the ten fights on Saturday, August 4th. Six of those come on the preliminary card, so before we take a closer look at the main card action it’s time for MMABay to break down the undercard. Which prospects will push for a main card slot next time out? Which veterans are teetering on the verge of unemployment? Find out after the jump…
Phil Davis (9-1, 5-1 UFC) vs. Wagner Prado (8-0, 0-0 UFC)
The Lowdown: A light-heavyweight bout headlines the preliminary card as former NCAA division one wrestler, Phil Davis, looks to rebound from his first career loss as he takes on Brazilian newcomer, Wagner Prado. ‘Mr Wonderful’ was considered a true threat to champion, Jon Jones, when he arrived in the UFC and quickly amassed a 5-0 record, submitting current contenders such as Tim Boetsch and Alexander Gustafsson. The former Penn State wrestler then dominated Brazilian veteran, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, to really raise his stock and earn him a shot at former champion, Rashad Evans. In what was to be a title-eliminator, the two met on FOX in January but the more experienced Evans out-classed Davis, defending his takedowns easily for five rounds to take the unanimous decision.
The blue-chip prospect gets back on the horse in L.A against undefeated debutant, Wagner Prado, a fearsome Team Nogueira prospect who has finished all but one opponent with strikes, six in the very first round. ‘Caldeirao’ is a massive, 6ft 4in specimen with a nasty muay thai base and plenty of horsepower and at just 25-years old, could be one to keep an eye on. Prado last fought in May in Sao Paulo and needed just 20-seconds to knock out Aldo Sutao with punches but the Brazilian faces a serious step-up in competition to mark his debut on the big stage.
The Verdict: ‘Mr Wonderful’ is still very much a work in progress but the athletic Pennsylvanian excels at sticking to what he knows best and unless Prado’s takedown defence is much better than most Brazilians, he may have few chances to showcase his striking. Davis has looked a little out of his depth in the stand-up at times, and if ‘Caldeirao’ can crack him early, a major upset might not be far away. But ‘Mr Wonderful’ will have learned a lot from his first defeat and he won’t waste time trading with the bigger man, shooting early and often until he gets Prado on his back where he can settle in guard. Rinse and repeat, and you have your winner. Davis, decision.
Michihiro Omigawa (13-11-1, 1-5 UFC) vs. Manny Gamburyan (11-7, 2-5 UFC)
The Lowdown: Surprisingly still on the roster despite having a less than flattering 1-5 Octagon record, Japanese veteran Michihiro Omigawa gets what should be his final chance in the UFC featherweight division as he faces a fellow judo player in L.A. Currently in his second spell with the promotion, the former DREAM and Sengoku fighter has gone 1-3 with his only victory coming in the U.K, a decision win over rookie Jason Young at UFC 138. The third-dan judo black-belt deserved it, having been robbed by the judges at UFC 131 after clearly out-boxing Darren Elkins for three rounds. But Omigawa could have no complaints at UFC 142 in January, showing heart and resilience but ultimately falling short to Brazilian Yuri Alcantara by decision.
Omigawa faces another down-at-heel featherweight, Armenian judoka, Manny Gamburyan. The runner-up of ‘The Ultimate Fighter 5′, Gamburyan struggled to hang with the much bigger lightweights in the UFC and with a record of 2-3, was drafted to the WEC where he quickly went 3-0 as a featherweight. ‘The Anvil’ knocked out former champion, Mike Thomas Brown, only to be soundly smashed by Jose Aldo when he was handed a title shot. The California-based grappler has gone 0-2 since rejoining the UFC, losing a contentious decision to Tyson Griffin and a much more clear-cut one to Diego Nunes at UFC 141. Three losses in row places Gamburyan in the thick of the ‘relegation zone’ of the UFC featherweight division, making this a must-win fight for both men.
The Verdict: Very evenly matched in the judo department, these two will more than likely end up throwing bombs in what could be a dark horse contender for ‘Fight of the Night’ on the undercard. Of course, it could also quite easily be fifteen minutes of clinching on the cage. Gamburyan has knockout power but an iffy chin, whereas Omigawa’s boxing is very credible and his chin seemingly made of granite. The Japanese fighter can also go all day long if necessary, albeit in sloppy fashion, and this writer expects Omigawa to out-last Gamburyan and land better shots to sneak it on the scorecards. Omigawa, decision.
Nam Phan (17-10, 1-3 UFC) vs. Cole Miller (18-6, 7-4 UFC)
The Lowdown: Another featherweight tilt on the prelims sees ‘The Ultimate Fighter 12′ standout, Nam Phan, stare into the void with his goodwill account seriously overdrawn and the Bank of Zuffa have got the bailiffs on speed-dial. The lifelong martial artist has gone 1-3 since the reality show wrapped up with his only victory being a well-deserved decision over Leonard Garcia at the second attempt, having been robbed by the judges first time around. The multi-disciplined Phan was last seen being ragdolled by grappler, Jimy Hettes, at UFC 141 in December and resulted in a third decision loss in the promotion.
The Vietnamese-American veteran faces lanky BJJ brown-belt, Cole ‘Magrinho’ Miller, who had put together a decent enough run at 155lbs before a dominant decision loss to Matt Wiman set him back last January. The 6ft 1in Georgia native has submitted such notables as Jorge Gurgel, Ross Pearson and Dan Lauzon and after adding T.J O’Brien to the list last summer, Miller decided the time was right to try his hand at 145lbs. The scrappy and brash American Top Team man had his featherweight debut spoiled though in March, losing a convincing decision to well-rounded prospect, Steven Siler, in Australia.
The Verdict: Phan may be a BJJ black-belt, but his mauling at the hands of Hettes showed that his skills haven’t translated brilliantly to the cage and Miller often performs like a black-belt, being very aggressive especially off his back. ‘Magrinho’s height and squid-like limbs will cause Phan problems on the ground but his poor wrestling means he’ll probably need to pull guard to get him there. Phan’s striking is light-years ahead of Miller’s and his tendency to attack the body in particular, could be the undoing of the skinny featherweight so expect Miller to keep the slugging to a minimum and try to use his size advantage to wear out the striker. Both will have their moments, but Miller will control enough of the action to nick it. Miller, decision.
Phil De Fries (8-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Oli Thompson (9-3, 0-0 UFC)
The Lowdown: British heavyweights clash on the undercard and it’s a fight that has been brewing for some time as submission whiz Phil De Fries finally squares off with former strong-man, Oli Thompson. BJJ purple-belt, De Fries, pieced together an unbeaten record on the regional circuit and submissions of former UFC heavyweight, Colin Robinson, and rising prospect Stav Economou impressed Joe Silva enough to hand the Sunderland boy a fight with Rob Broughton at UFC 138. The 6ft 5in De Fries soundly handled the burly Broughton to a decision and his reward was a fight with surging prospect, Stipe Miocic, in February on FUEL TV. It proved to be too much for the 26-year old Brit who was quickly sent scurrying by the unbeaten Miocic and ate a barrage of punches en route to a knockout loss just 43-seconds into round one.
After dropping his first career losses back-to-back in 2010, Sussex’s Oli Thompson, a decorated former strongman, went on a serious tear on the U.K circuit and a 5-0 run saw the burly Wolfslsair Academy man catch the eye of UFC matchmaker, Joe Silva. A first round submission of former pro boxer, Mark Potter, last summer sealed the deal and Thompson made his debut in Sydney, Australia in March. The bearded Brit engaged Jackson’s MMA heavyweight, Shawn Jordan, from the off but was floored by a knee in round two and the following barrage of punches ended Thompson’s night.
The Verdict: De Fries may have his deficiencies standing, but the grappler knows his way around the mat and unless Thompson has improved his takedown defence, he’s going to wind up underneath the BJJ fighter early on. Thompson will need to sprawl and brawl hard and while he definitely has the power to wobble De Fries, he’s still fairly wild with his hands and unreliable in the cardio department. Heavyweight bouts can often go either way but De Fries should see his Alliance MMA training pay dividends in L.A by submitting a flagging Thompson midway through the fight. De Fries, submission, 2nd round.
Josh Grispi (14-3, 0-2 UFC) vs. Rani Yahya (16-7, 1-1 UFC)
The Lowdown: For featherweight prospect, Josh Grispi, this could be the last dance as the 23-year old former WEC standout has had a terrible time of it since switching to the UFC. ‘The Fluke’ looked sensational during his 4-0 stint in the WEC, finishing the likes of Mark Hominick, Jens Pulver and L.C Davis in style. But the Massachusetts native has suffered a huge drop in form since joining the big leagues, losing a dominant decision to Dustin Poirier at UFC 125 before a third round body-shot from George Roop folded ‘The Fluke’ in June. Grispi’s had his fair share of problems in everyday life also, caring for his seriously ill father among them, but that won’t spare the youngster from the axe if he falls to 0-3 this weekend.
Grispi faces second-degree BJJ black-belt, Rani Yahya, who has postponed plans to drop to bantamweight to replace the injured Pablo Garza and the Brazilian is also in need of a win. The Brasilia native fared adequately in the WEC, submitting former champion Eddie Wineland but dropping a few decisions as the promotion closed up shop. Yahya made his UFC debut, and return to 145lbs, last January and the grappler surprised many as he out-worked heavy favourite, Mike Thomas Brown, to a well-deserved decision. But Yahya’s joy was short-lived, as he had no answer for former title contender, Chad Mendes, at UFC 133 last summer, falling short on the scorecards to the wrestler.
The Verdict: The much taller Grispi is quite the grappling whiz himself and when two grapplers collide, it often dissipates into a sloppy kickboxing bout, exactly what this writer feels will occur in this one. Grispi’s striking has looked well below-par lately and we’ve seen him fare better than that, so I have a sneaking suspicision we’ll see the youngster come out blazing from the start this time around. Using his reach, expect Grispi to jab and land straight shots while managing to stuff the takedown attempts of Yahya and ‘The Fluke’ will take a razor close decision to keep his UFC career alive. Grispi, decision.
Ulysses Gomez (9-2, 0-0 UFC) vs. John Moraga (10-1, 0-0 UFC)
The Lowdown: UFC newcomer, Ulysses Gomez, may go by the nickname of ‘Useless’ but anyone who’s seen the flyweight prospect in action will be smiling knowlingly as he makes his Octagon debut this weekend. Born in Los Angeles, the Mexican-American is a long-time student of Marc Laimon and has been tearing up the Tachi Palace Fights roster with one eye on the big leagues for some time. A BJJ brown-belt, the well-rounded Gomez lost the TPF flyweight title fight against Darrell Montague last year by decision but has gone 2-0 since with both wins coming at bantamweight. ‘Useless’ was last seen submitting young up-and-comer, Cody Gibson, in round three to take the TPF bantamweight crown in December.
Gomez takes on fellow flyweight debutant, John Moraga, this weekend with the winner shooting right up the rankings of the UFC’s freshest division. Moraga arrives as something of an unknown quantity, but the former bantamweight has shared the mat with the likes of UFC lightweight champion, Ben Henderson, training in Phoenix, Arizona. The grappler hasn’t lost since dropping a decision to recent TUF winner, John Dodson, in 2010 and has won four on the trot, finishing three of those opponents. The submission wizard will be the underdog in Los Angeles, but Moraga seems to have the potential to turn a few heads as the two flyweights prepare to open up the Facebook prelims broadcast.
The Verdict: Training where he does, you can expect Moraga to be a solid wrestler but Gomez has faced far better competition and prevailed, so will be the rightful favourite going into this one. ‘Useless’ has the grappling to hang with Moraga and the striking to better him, so expect a back-and-forth tussle to become increasingly one-sided as Gomez lands fluid combinations and picks his way to a landslide on the scorecards – he’s been waiting too long for this chance. Gomez, decision.
That’s all for the prelims, remember you can stream all the action live on Facebook and UFC.tv on Saturday night and be sure to keep tabs on MMABay throughout the week as we preview the main card action of ‘UFC on FOX 4: Shogun vs. Vera’.
By Steve Davies
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