Blog-O-Plata: The Final Count-down?
Sometimes an opportunity arises that is simply too good to pass up on. But chances inherently contain a measure of risk; the question then becomes one of risk versus reward. Michael ‘The Count’ Bisping was recently presented with such a dilemma; take the path of least resistance to the UFC gold, or throw himself headfirst at a Chael Sonnen-shaped roadblock for an instant title opportunity. We all know which option Bisping took, but was it the right move, or will he live to regret it?
Last Tuesday turned out to be a really bad day to turn off my phone. MMABay had sent me to a screening of Haywire and aside from catching up with some of the UK MMA crew, I’d made the decision to have an otherwise completely MMA-free evening. I clicked the ‘off’ button on my phone, hit London town, and didn’t turn in back on again until I was tucked up in bed at about 4:30am. Needless to say, I had a lot to catch up on.
Mark Munoz was hurt in training and had withdrawn from his January 28th bout with Chael Sonnen. The contest had been seen by many as a de-facto number one contender’s bout, but with Silva on the self indefinitely and the likes of Michael Bisping and Vitor Belfort also hovering, the title picture was still a little murky. All that changed with Munoz’ injury. The card would be the first ‘official’ ‘UFC on Fox’ event (following the Velasquez/Dos Santos bout last year) and the promotion wanted it stacked. With no upper echelon fighters free to step in against Sonnen, the promotion made the call to offer the bout to Bisping, and ‘The Count’ bit their hand off for the opportunity. The sweetener? It would officially denote the number one contender to the 185lb title.
The first thought to pass through my bleary, vodka-soaked mind was “Damn, the trash talking is going to be epic”. Bisping is known for his brash and cocky nature, as well as tendency to explode when someone pushes his buttons. Chael Sonnen doesn’t just know how to push people’s buttons, he yanks their cranks, pulls their chains and everything in between. It’s strange then that a week later, on the eve of the showdown, things appear to be most civil between Messers Bisping and Sonnen. Why? Mutual respect, on all levels.
Bisping and Sonnen both feel the other’s pain. Both are known for their ‘love me or hate me, either way I don’t care’ attitudes. Bisping has openly thanked his ‘haters’ for making him a millionaire, whereas Sonnen just acts like they love him anyway. Both are cheered and boo’d in equal measure, depending on where and whom they are fighting. Neither is short of a sound bite. Both know exactly what the other is doing when they get behind the mic, and there is definite admiration on each side.
The adulation doesn’t end at the press conference though; both Bisping and Sonnen know that they are in for the fight of their lives.
Sonnen has arguably faced only one fighter in higher standing than ‘The Count’: Anderson Silva. While no one is as lethal on their feet as the current 185lb champ, Bisping is proficient in different ways and is widely lauded by his peers as one of the most technically sound strikers in the division. Defensively, the Englishman has incredible hips and his ability to reclaim guard and get back to his feet is up there with the best in the sport. His cardio too is second to none, and while UFC fans have yet to see it in action, Bisping is noted for his ability to slap on armbars/triangles from the bottom. Not a bad weapon to have against a fighter with eight submission losses.
Equally, Bisping’s hands will be fuller than ever with Chael Sonnen. ‘The Count’ did well against the arguably better Rashad Evans at 205lbs (a fight many feel he should have won), and has also faced Dan Henderson, a man few would rank below Chael Sonnen at any stage in his career. Unfortunately for Bisping, ‘Hendo’ found him out in the most spectacular of fashions, but the ‘H-Bomb’ isn’t something he’ll have to worry about with Chael.
Bisping’s biggest concern will be Sonnen’s greatest weapon, the takedown. Chael has been frank about the fact that he isn’t there to ‘stand and bang’ or put on a show. He’s there to win and doesn’t much care how he does it. Bisping may be a master of getting back to his feet, but he’s never had a ground fighter as tenacious as Sonnen on top of him. ‘The Count’ will also have to contend with the fact that Sonnen won’t be afraid of trading a little leather on the feet if push comes to shove, and can coax a tap via sheer force of will, if not from technical acumen.
The bookies have their clear favourite; every dollar you place on Bisping will return four. A dollar on ‘The Count’ to win by submission earns you 12, and a 3rd round stoppage of Sonnen pays out an incredible 18 dollars for every dollar wagered with some bookmakers.
Has Bisping bitten off more than he can chew? Maybe, maybe not. On paper Sonnen isn’t a favourable match up for anyone, and ‘The Count’ did take this fight on short notice. Short notice works both ways though, and Bisping certainly presents a whole new set of problems for Sonnen to adjust to.
They say that your chances of winning the lottery get a whole lot better once you buy a ticket. The winner of Sonnen/Munoz would have gotten a shot before Bisping or Maia. With the promotion’s recent Brazilian focus, it’s even conceivable that Vitor Belfort might have snuck back into the line ahead of ‘The Count’. Bisping just bought a ticket.
The fact is, win or lose, Bisping has pulled the UFC out of a sticky situation by taking this fight on just two weeks notice. A loss to Sonnen won’t be the career-killer that a loss to Maia could have been, especially if it’s not as one-sided as the bookies are making out. And with Anderson Silva nearing retirement age, there will be plenty of opportunities for the brash Brit to make another run at the gold if Sonnen is too much for him on Saturday night. One or two wins later he’ll be back in the title hunt, only this time he won’t be taking a last minute, co-main event fight on Fox. He’ll be making millions fighting the divisional champion on PPV.
Fighters are by nature risk takers and gamblers. Make no mistake; Bisping is rolling the dice with this one. But then again, what does he have to lose?
By Brad Wharton. Follow me on Twitter @MMABayBrad
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