MMABay’s Sunday Supplement: Strikeforce’s Heavyweight World Grand Prix is a Huge Gamble
Gathering 8 or more professional fighters, their managers and their egos together for a year-long tournament is something the Japanese had down to a fine art. In the US though, where Yakuza threats are not an acceptable form of coercion, attempting to hold a ‘Heavyweight Grand Prix’ is a risky roll of the dice. Are Strikeforce up to the task?
Problem 1: Alistair Overeem has better things to do: Alistair Overeem is a smart man, surrounded by smarter men. They know how quickly fads and fame can come and go in Japan (especially in the fight business), which is why they’re playing the long game with Alistair; building him up slowly, taking as many dates as possible, mitigating risk. Overeem is a rare breed in Japan; he has the charisma, the look, the charm and the marketability of a Bob Sapp. Unlike Sapp though, ‘The Reem’ has the skills to back it up in the ring.
Overeem’s most trusted confidents recently revealed that their charge does want to fight in the Octagon one day; just not today. The method behind their madness is simple; money – Alistair wants to make as much of it as possible during his limited time at the top. Fighting in the UFC means two, maybe three paydays a year; Overeem can double that with his K-1 schedule and a couple of Strikeforce dates for good measure. But therein lays the problem.
Even if things go smoothly (which they wont), the Strikeforce Heavyweight GP won’t reach it’s final round until late 2011. Let’s assume that Overeem makes the final – is he really going to abandon his spot in the K-1 WGP Final 16 and Final 8 for Strikeforce? Of course not. Should Overeem reach the final then he’ll hold all the cards – Strikeforce will be forced to work around his schedule, which could mean postponing the conclusion of their tournament until March of 2012, by which point it’ll have lost all relevance. Of course, there is the possibility that either Fabricio Werdum or the winner of the Fedor/Bigfoot bout will knock ‘The Reem’ out of contention – but with the way the Dutchman has fought recently, that’s a big roll of the dice for Strikeforce to make.
Problem 2: M-1 Global’s infamous politicking: Fact: M-1 Global has forced renegotiations of Fedor’s contract with Strikeforce after each of his bouts for the promotion. Let’s assume that the Russian’s handlers are creatures of habit; what’s to stop them pulling a similar stunt following their man’s quarter or semi-final bouts?
If Fedor wins in February, and there is every reason to believe that he will, the Russian phenom will be set for a either a highly lucrative rematch with Fabricio Werdum, or a marquee showdown with Alistair Overeem. Regardless of the opponent, it will be for the Strikeforce heavyweight title. Once again, the bargaining chips will be with M-1; Strikeforce will have to give them what they want, or replace Fedor with Lavar Johnson, Shane Del Rosario or Cole Konrad – hardy an attractive proposition.
Here’s where the tale takes a sinister twist; rumours are abound that M-1 has been negotiating for a direct deal with Showtime, initially to air their ‘M-1 Challenge’ series on the premium channel. But what’s to stop them cutting out Strikeforce altogether? Nobody knows the nature of Fedor’s latest contract; is Showtime part of it? Will Fedor’s infamous hand injury flare up if M-1 doesn’t get what they want? Their track record is a shaky one; M-1 and Fedor’s involvement in the tournament may end up being more trouble than it’s worth. Strikeforce may find themselves forced to play ball if M-1 and Showtime end up in bed before the tournament finishes.
Problem 3: Josh Barnett’s ‘supplement’ issues: Time for another fact: Josh Barnett has been caught using steroids three times. Now let’s go out on a limb here and assume that those weren’t the only three times he’s taken some form of banned substance before a fight; is this the kind of athlete Strikeforce are going to pin their hopes on?
First of all Barnett still has licensing issues in the state of California. Serious issues. The CSAC have stated that they will not licence ‘The Baby -Faced Assassin’ until he has appeared before them for cross-examination regarding his past steroid use and rehabilitation. Nevada and New Jersey fall into the same category, and with time running out for Barnett to apply for relicensing before a proposed April fight date, Strikeforce may have to look to a more lax commission if the former Pride and UFC star is to compete.
For his part, Scott Coker has allegedly received promises of licensure in certain states, should Barnett provide a clean urine sample. Fair enough. But with any commission that licences Barnett likely to be stricter than Thai prison when it comes to administering pre/post-fight and random testing, Strikeforce may be hinging their hopes on Barnett providing up to 10 clean samples before the tournament is over. Given his history, and with all due respect, those aren’t odds I’d play.
Problem 4: Strikeforce being Strikeforce: Don’t get me wrong, as negative as all of this sounds, I do like Strikeforce. I admire them for giving the UFC a run for their money, their ‘Challengers’ series is excellent and their shows are usually a lot of fun. With that said, all the pieces never seem to fall into place for Scott Coker and his team, and it’s largely their own doing.
Firstly, they will always be at the behest of Showtime, or CBS, or wherever the money is coming from when it comes to programming. Will Showtime be willing to reschedule events to compensate for injuries during the GP, or will they just throw another name in the hat to keep the whole thing running, devaluing the tournament for the sake of scheduling?
Secondly, as we’ve seen with Fedor, Overeem, Nick Diaz and KJ Noons, Strikeforce simply doesn’t have a handle on its top guys. With so many big egos in one eight-man bracket, what hope have the fledgling Californian promotion of keeping the inmates from running the asylum?
The test case was last year’s promised 16-man middleweight GP. Remember that? No? How about the eight-man middleweight tournament we were promised when the previous one fell through? Or the four-man bracket and separate title bout, with the winners of both facing off in a super-fight? You don’t remember them because they didn’t happen. If Strikeforce can’t corral the likes of Tim Kennedy and Robbie Lawler into a four-man tournament, does anyone really expect them to shepherd Fedor, Arlovski, Overeem, Barnett and co through a ‘World GP’ over four or five cards, will all the excess baggage that comes with the principles? Smart money says no.
Look, I’d love to kick back, open a beer and enjoy the start of another classic MMA Grand Prix next month. I’m an admitted Pride-ophile (which is a term I really ought to be careful calling myself in public) and I yearn for the golden years of 2003-2007, when the Japanese promotion ran epic tournament after epic tournament. But this isn’t 2003, and this isn’t Pride.
The publicity already generated by the mere announcement of this tournament is unquestionable, but my worry is that Strikeforce are simply setting themselves up for a catastrophic fail, one they perhaps wouldn’t have had to endure if they’d simply booked a series of fights through the year and not called it a GP. I want Strikeforce to succeed, but if, sorry, when something goes wrong with this tournament, the naysayers will have yet more ammunition and Strikeforce will once again look like the lost puppy of MMA promotions.
Please Scott Coker, please prove me wrong.
By Brad Wharton
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Photo by Esther Lin – STRIKEFORCE
