UFC 115: Liddell vs. Franklin pre-event preview and predictions (Preliminary Card)

The UFC pays a visit to Vancouver, British Columbia for the first time ever as ‘UFC 115: Liddell vs. Franklin’ goes down over the border in Canada this coming weekend. The notoriously energetic Canadian MMA crowd will no doubt be out in force as the Vancouver crowd are treated to their first live UFC event and before looking at the PPV card it’s time to check out the preliminary card, and what could happen this weekend in Vancouver.

Spike TV televised prelims

Tyson Griffin (14-2, 7-2 UFC) vs. Evan Dunham (10-0, 3-0 UFC)

Lightweight action headlines the Spike TV card, as former training partners Tyson Griffin and Evan Dunham will collide with both looking to keep their respective rich veins of form going with a victory. Griffin has been a mainstay in the UFC lightweight division for several years and is almost always involved in an action-packed war whenever he steps inside the Octagon. One of the front-runners in the 155lb division and arguably a win or two away from an opportunity to avenge his defeat to the current division champion, Griffin last fought at UFC last September against former title contender Hermes Franca. The powerhouse wrestler had often been criticised for his inability to finish opponents, but Griffin hushed those critics with a nasty second round TKO of Franca, and another performance like that would make him hard to ignore in terms of a title shot.

Evan Dunham might well be the most unassuming looking badass in the lightweight division right now. There is nothing at all threatening about the Oregon native’s appearance or demeanour, but once the bell rings the undefeated Dunham leaves no doubt about the scale of his talents. The rising star has looked solid and then some since he debuted at UFC 95 last year, scoring a flash knockout over Swedish grappler Per Eklund in the first round. After comfortably decisioning veteran Marcus Aurelio at UFC 102, Dunham was then paired with TUF season 8 winner Efrain Escudero in his last match-up at ‘Ultimate Fight Night 20’ in January. Although both went into the fight with equally impressive unbeaten records, Dunham surprised everyone as he took everything his opponent had with ease and submitted him with a sickeningly tight armbar in the third round. It was Dunham’s ‘coming out party’ so to speak, and on that form this could prove to be a real battle.

Steve Davies’ Verdict: Having trained together in the past, both guys will have a fair idea of what the other man will be bringing to this fight, and the outcome depends on who can implement their game-plan most effectively. Griffin has always complemented his rock solid wrestling background with a willingness to throw bombs with any opponent and pass the test on most occasions. Once criticised for being unable to finish opponents, Griffin shut the mouths of his detractors when he knocked out veteran former title contender Hermes Franca at the tail-end of last year. Tyson will be looking to keep that form alive but in Dunham he will face an equally game fighter who is unafraid to stand and bang, and has a decent chin to back it up. Dunham showed his under-rated BJJ game against Escudero but I don’t expect Griffin to fall into the same trap, and if he does, the brick outhouse of a lightweight should have enough to power himself to safety every time. Physical power lies with Griffin, and I expect Tyson to return to his steady, solid old self and effectively wear down his opponent to earn a unanimous decision and derail the Dunham hype-train for the time-being at least. Griffin, decision.

Brad Wharton’s Verdict: Twice-defeated lightweight sensation and the man who many feel is a shoe in for a title shot in the near future, Tyson Griffin, returns after a lengthy lay-off to face an undefeated prospect in a mouth-watering clash. This bout was recently switched to the Spike TV prelims and it’s no surprise as to why; Griffin’s all pressure style has earned him ‘Fight of the Night’ honours on five previous occasions. Against Dunham, a talented yet unproven submission machine, Griffin will have to be on his toes more than ever. Look for the Xtreme Couture product to use his wrestling in reverse, keeping the fight on his toes where he can bang out a victory over the less-experienced striker Dunham. Griffin, decision.

Phil Simkin’s Verdict: I can’t believe Tyson Griffin hasn’t been given a shot at the lightweight title yet. His only two UFC losses have come against the now lightweight champion, Frankie Edgar, and former lightweight holder, Sean Sherk. Perhaps the reason why Griffin has yet to be given a shot is his inability to finish fights, well in the UFC anyway. His only win via knockout came most recently against Hermes Franca at UFC 103 in September 2009. All but one of his previous UFC wins have gone to the judges, but incredibly the little man has won Fight of the Night honours on five occasions, as well as one Submission of the Night award. His is equally as impressive on the feet as on the ground and is as quick as Usain Bolt. Evan Dunham is one tough cookie and won’t be easily beaten. The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt is currently undefeated in his ten professional fights. He most recently submitted Efrain Escudero at UFC Fight Night 20, in January. And last year he defeated Per Eklund by strikes at UFC 95 and Marcus Aurelio at UFC 102. And this is one fight I’m really looking forward to. It could arguably be on the main card as these two lightweights always entertain. Both Griffin and Dunham feel comfortable throwing bombs on the feet, or looking for submissions or the ground and pound on the canvas. I give the advantage to Griffin in the standup and on the ground and expect him to pick apart Dunham.  Griffin, decision.

Matt Wiman (11-5, 5-3 UFC) vs. Mac Danzig (19-7-1, 3-3 UFC)

The Spike TV prelims show begins with this lightweight bout between ‘Handsome’ Matt Wiman and Mac Danzig. Winner of TUF season 6, experienced and outspoken lightweight Mac Danzig might have one of the coolest sounding names in MMA, but has been nothing short of a disappointment since he won the reality show. Danzig strolled to victory at the finale against Tommy Speer, but many rightly feel that Mac was so much more experienced than anyone else in the house as to make it a pointless exercise. Since he joined the 155lb ranks in the UFC, Danzig has not impressed many – struggling to finish less experienced fighters seemingly hand-picked to give him an impressive win, and on the receiving end of some dominant losses. Having lost three fights in a row, some felt Danzig should have been sent packing, but he was given a fight with Justin Buchholz at UFC 109 in February and won a decision. Danzig now needs to raise his game bigtime as he faces off with the ever-ready Wiman.

Wiman is one of those fighters who despite not excelling in any area, is a well-rounded and aggressive fighter that simply pleases the masses with his all-action approach. Wiman was once on a four-fight streak inside the Octagon and he rebounded from a tight loss to Sam Stout at UFC 97 (where the two won ‘Fight of the Night’ honours) by taking the decision over Shane Nelson at UFC 107 in December. Wiman has improved dramatically since his own stint on TUF season 5, and Danzig had better be prepared to be pressured from the offset in what could be a great match-up.

Steve Davies’ Verdict: For a fighter to look so effortlessly dominant on TUF and be as highly-regarded as Danzig, I have been very underwhelmed by the Californian fighter. Supposedly a slick ground artist, Danzig has struggled to submit opponents and been submitted himself, while his striking has not really set the world on fire either. Justin Buchholz is tough and as game as they come, but is an opponent that you can bet the UFC thought Danzig would finish with ease, and Mac had to rely on the judges to break a three-fight losing streak. Wiman is a far more aggressive, if sloppier, striker than Danzig and has knocked out tough opponents before. Wiman’s wrestling has slowly been developing and what he lacks in refined technique he makes up for with his Clay Guida-esque relentless pace and pressure. I expect Danzig to cope well early on but as the fight progresses, as has been the case in the past, Mac will begin to lose heart as Wiman never lets his foot off the gas and completely overwhelms him en route to a comfortable and damaging decision. Wiman, decision.

Brad Wharton’s Verdict:: Danzig narrowly survived being the first ‘Ultimate Fighter’ (outside of the veteran’s ‘Comeback’ season) to be cut by the promotion as he snapped a three fight skid last time out. With that said, the talented grappler didn’t exactly set the world on fire in his bout with Justin Buchholz, and a loss here could still see him joining the unemployment line come Monday morning. Matt Wiman finds himself in a similar position; unfortunately, this is a fight that (on paper at least) he stands little chance of looking good in and even less chance of winning. Danzig has been around the block a few times; he knows when to be flashy and when to fight smart. Against Wiman he’ll do the latter, grinding out a lopsided decision win and ensuring at least one more fight in the UFC. Danzig, decision.

Phil Simkin’s Verdict: Ever since winning “The Ultimate Fighter” series six, Mac Danzig has been consistently inconsistent. After the win which secured him that accolade, Danzig has put together a record of 2-3, pretty average for someone with title aspirations. An impressive grappler, Danzig has proven himself to more than capable of striking and has taken energy monster, Clay Guida, all three rounds in a UFC Fight Night contest back in 2008. The three losses have all fairly even though, and Danzig hasn’t looked out of place. His opponent is so slouch though. Matt Wiman has been fighting in the UFC since 2006 and has only been stopped by Spencer Fishers’ flying knee. This will be a close fight with neither fighter giving an inch. I give the advantage to Danzig in most areas, which will be enough for him to edge a close decision. Danzig, decision.

Preliminary Card – Untelevised

David Loiseau (19-9, 4-4 UFC) vs. Mario Miranda (9-1, 0-1 UFC)

At one point, David ‘The Crow’ Loiseau was one of the most feared men in the UFC middleweight division but in recent times the sport of MMA has not treated Loiseau kindly. Recently, ‘The Crow’ has been on an absolute mission trying to get back into the UFC, and he did just that at UFC 97 last summer where he was comfortably beaten by decision by Ed Herman. As quickly as he returned, Loiseau was gone again – but that didn’t deter the Montreal native from trying to get onto season 11 of The Ultimate Fighter, or stepping up as a replacement on the UFC 113 card in May in his home town. ‘The Crow’ was denied a licence for that fight, but then the decision was overturned only for Loiseau to find that the UFC had found a replacement due to his apparent inability to fight. As a reward for his perseverance, Loiseau was handed a fight on the undercard this weekend in Vancouver against fellow last-chancer, Mario Miranda.

Miranda made his debut at ‘Ultimate Fight Night 21’ in March, but the fighter touted as the brightest 185lb talent outside of the major leagues fell way short as he was stopped late in the first round by Gerald Harris. It was a dreadful start for the Washington native, and although he protested the stoppage as being premature, Miranda now finds himself in the dreaded ‘loser leaves town’ scenario against the seasoned veteran Loiseau. Prior to signing with the UFC, Miranda had been on a tear in other promotions, with a nine-fight winning streak and a variety of stoppages under his belt. A victory over a household name such as ‘The Crow’ would do Miranda’s reputation no harm, and he will be confident of overcoming a fighter who has seemingly lost his edge in a major way of late.

Steve Davies’ Verdict: Sadly for Loiseau, there are not many facets of the game in which he can expect to hold an advantage over his opponent on the weekend. Loiseau’s striking game is still pretty dangerous, and is definitely a lot more refined than Miranda’s, but ‘The Crow’ has lost the venom and spring in his step that made him such a deadly opponent in the past. Miranda, a high-calibre wrestler, holds the significant advantage in that area, and his tall, lanky frame will pose a tricky obstacle for Loiseau. Miranda has finished opposition with strikes in the past, but I feel he will want to get a no-nonsense victory here. I expect Miranda to avoid the stand-up and try to take Loiseau to the mat every chance he gets. From there, Miranda has the BJJ credentials and wrestling base to totally control the veteran, and Loiseau will once again be lobbying to get back into the UFC. Miranda, decision.

Brad Wharton’s Verdict: Canadian veteran David Loiseau returns to the Octagon after some bizarre allegations of involvement with organised crime kept him off the UFC’s last foray into Canada. ‘The Crow’s gameplan won’t be complicated; he’ll need to make use of his highlight-reel spinning back kick, amongst other things, to keep the talented AMC grappler at bay. If he does, he takes the fight. If he doesn’t, he’ll be grappled to a lopsided decision loss. Miranda may have had his UFC debut abruptly spoiled by Gerald Harris last time out, but smart money says he overcomes Loiseau’s home-field advantage to win a close fought decision. Miranda, decision.

Phil Simkin’s Verdict: UFC veteran, David Loiseau, who was the first ever French Canadian to fight in the UFC, will return to the octagon against Brazilian Mario Miranda. The thirty-year-old has lost his last three UFC fights, most recently a unanimous decision loss to Ed Herman at UFC 97 in April 2009. Back in 2006, Loiseau lost back to back fights against former Middleweight champion, Rich Franklin, and former contender, Mike Swick. He does, however, hold notable wins over Evan Tanner and Charles McCarthy. His opponent will be the always dangerous Mario Miranda – who up until UFC Fight Night: Florian vs. Gomi in March – had never lost a professional bout. Miranda likes to mix things up with strikes, submissions and wrestling – his five knockouts, four submissions and two decision wins show this – and Loiseau will have to be vigilant for any counter striking thrown his way. If Loiseau can keep this fight on the feet, then I can see him squeezing out a decision win. But that’s easier said than done. Miranda, submission, 2^nd round.

James Wilks (6-3, 1-1 UFC) vs.Peter Sobotta (8-2, 0-1 UFC)

For James ‘Lightning’ Wilks, the learning curve inside the Octagon has been a harsh one since the welterweight defeated DaMarques Johnson in style at the finale of TUF season 9. Wilks quietly went about his business on the show, and looked to be a slick and polished prospect until he made his full UFC debut at UFC 105 against Matt Brown. Brown is the kind of rugged and fearless warrior that can turn the most sparkling of prospective contenders into a battered and broken mess, and although Wilks held his own, Brown eventually broke him and finished him in the third round. It was a serious test for Wilks but in time-honoured tradition for TUF winners who suffer an early setback in their Octagon careers, ‘Lightning’ will get a reprieve as he faces another man who lost his UFC debut, Peter Sobotta.

German 170lb scrapper Sobotta made his debut as a promising local talent when the UFC visited Germany for UFC 99, but wound up on the receiving end of a dominant decision loss to British banger Paul Taylor. Prior to that, Sobotta had garnered a reputation in European MMA with all eight of his victories ending by stoppage. Sobotta knows this will be his final shot for now to make a name for himself on the big stage, but faces an uphill battle when he takes to the cage in Vancouver.

Steve Davies’ Verdict: Pretty much all of the winners of TUF have at some point been hand-fed inferior opposition, and in a marketing sense it is logical for the UFC to build their supposed future greats up with care. Wilks was clearly not ready for a fighter of Brown’s level, but in Sobotta he will face a fighter he should be able to beat with relative ease. The German was touted as having good wrestling and ground skills, and being unable to control and takedown a fighter with a notoriously bad defence such as Paul Taylor doesn’t bode well. Look for Wilks to be happy to go wherever the fight takes him, and after a few early scuffles the fight will wind up on the ground where Wilks will use his long frame and BJJ to secure a fairly easy rear-naked choke and get himself back to winning ways. Wilks, submission, 1^st round.

Brad Wharton’s Verdict: It’s not often that an Ultimate Fighter winner is relegated straight to the prelims, but James Wilks failed to set the world on fire in his full UFC debut against Matt Brown last November. Sporting a paltry nine fights over seven years, Wilks is batting a .750 average and could become the first TUF winner since Travis Lutter to be cut from the UFC. It’s not going to be an easy task for the British ex-pat; Sobotta is the younger, faster and more experienced of the two by some margin. Still, the German struggled against Paul Taylor last time out and is coming off a significant lay off; factors the scrappy Brit can use to his advantage. Look for Wilks to drag the fight into deep waters before eventually sinking in an 11^th hour submission. Wilks, submission, 3^rd round.

Phil Simkin’s Verdict: This is probably not the fight James Wilks, the winner of “The Ultimate Fighter” series nine, would be wanting right now, especially at this stage of his career. He won the welterweight contest by submitting DaMarques Jones in June 2009, but lost to Matt Brown via strikes at UFC 105 later that year. The British born fighter, who has spent his entire professional MMA career fighting in America, has lost the momentum picked up after winning the prestigious “Ultimate Fighter” competition. He needs to get back to winning ways. Wilks, to his credit, has never left any of his wins in the hands of the judges. Four of his six wins have come via submission while the other two were ended with punches. He has a great ground game but his opponent has an equally great ground game. Four of Sobatta’s victories ended when his opponent tapped, while the other half were knockout blows. This will be Sobatta’s second English opponent in the UFC, having previously lost a decision to Pau Taylor. Both these fighters will never realistically challenge for the title, but they are in danger of being left adrift. I think Wilks will be better than Sobotta in every department and wherever the fight goes, I see Wilks winning. Wilks, submission, 2^nd round.

Claude Patrick (11-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. Ricardo Funch (7-1, 0-1 UFC)

Recently signed to the UFC welterweight division, fast-rising Canadian Claude Patrick will make his debut inside the Octagon on the undercard in Vancouver, as the Toronto native will take on Ricardo ‘Golden Boy’ Funch. With many marking out Patrick as perhaps the most exciting prospect in Canadian MMA right now, it will be interesting to see how the debutant fares when he does battle on home turf against a fighter who will no doubt be fighting for his contract when the cage door closes. Patrick has racked up an admirable record thus far, fighting in such organisations as the IFL and KOTC and notching up a host of submissions and stoppages due to strikes.

Funch was undefeated when he debuted at UFC 107 in December 2009 and found himself on the receiving end of a cut-and-dry decision defeat to rising 170lb star Johny Hendricks. The Team Link fighter will need to show something special against the newcomer if he wishes to remain on the roster in the UFC but will have his work cut out for him as he faces yet another potential UFC star in Claude Patrick. A tough young fighter, ‘Golden Boy’ will probably hold the edge in the striking department, but in terms of grappling he could be in for a long night against the newcomer.

Steve Davies’ Verdict: One thing that troubles me a little with Patrick, is the fact that he seems to be a small 170lb’er, and from looking at pictures of the Canadian I feel he could comfortably makes 155lbs. However, this fight will be at welterweight and while Funch will be the slightly bigger man come fight night, Patrick is the all-round better prospect. Claude has faced better opposition in his career so far and I expect the talented newcomer to come out on top against Funch, although he may be forced to work for it over the course of three rounds. Patrick, decision.

Brad Wharton’s Verdict: In a card-filler bout designed to give the Canadian crowd another local face to cheer for, derailed Brazilian prospect Ricardo Funch looks to get his UFC career back on track against Jiu-Jitsu specialist Patrick. The French-Canadian has made his name submitting unheralded fighters on the local circuit; he’s yet to feel the pressure of competing in front of thousands or the dreaded ‘Octagon Jitters’. Funch may have been ragdolled by Jonny Hendricks last time out, but it was a lessoned learned for the talented grappler. Look for the Brazilian to put the Canadian fans in a royally bad mood, submitting their fighter in the second, eh?. Funch, submission, 2^nd round.

Phil Simkin’s Verdict: Based on octagon action, this bout is relatively hard to call. Funch made his UFC debut against Johny Hendricks at UFC 107 in December last year, losing a lopsided decision, whilst Claude Patrick has yet to step foot inside the octagon. However, Patrick is currently riding a ten fight winning streak which stretches eight years, with his only professional loss coming against UFC veteran Drew McFedries way back in 2002. I’m sure every UFC debutant gets the jitters when they first fight for the world’s biggest MMA organisation. Funch has already made his debut and has no doubt experienced those nerves. Claude Patrick, despite his ten fight winning run, will feel those first time nerves. There have been many occasions when those nerves get the better of a fighter. That is something Funch will look to exploit and I personally see him winning this fight. Funch, decision.

Mike Pyle (18-7-1, 1-2 UFC) vs. Jesse Lennox (11-2, 1-1 UFC)

Since experienced veteran Mike ‘Quicksand’ Pyle made his debut in the UFC last year after the Affliction promotion collapsed, the axe of unemployment has seemingly been hanging constantly over the Team Quest fighter’s head. In this welterweight bout against Jesse ‘The Ox’ Lennox, the situation is no different, as a loss for either man could send him hurtling through the exit and back to the little leagues. Pyle’s return, although at very short notice at UFC 98 against Brock Larson, was a short and unpleasant experience as he was choked out in round one. He redeemed himself by besting Chris Wilson over three rounds and snatching a late submission, but again found himself at square one when he had his brain scrambled by Jake Ellenberger at UFC 108 and lost via second round TKO. A third defeat would be catastrophic for ‘Quicksand’, to put it bluntly.

Lennox was transferred to the UFC’s thriving 170lb division from the WEC when the organisation liquefied its welterweight bracket, and his debut fight at UFC 101 last year saw him pretty much get beaten over three by Danillo Villefort until the Brazilian suffered a nasty cut and the fight was called. It was a pretty lucky victory for Lennox, who despite boasting a mean record was then found wanting at Ultimate Fight Night 20 in January when he lost a lopsided decision to the in-form Rick Story.

Steve Davies’ Verdict: A generally solid way to kick off the untelevised card, neither guy can afford to add another loss to his resume and still expect to be employed in the UFC. Pyle is the more wily and seasoned of the two, but his experience has counted for little of late and his ground-orientated game has been bettered at times which is worrying for a fighter with little to offer in the stand-up department. Lennox has rode his luck since coming to the UFC, and unfortunately for the Miletich Martial Arts product, stocky, tough as nails wrestlers who like to hit hard are ten a penny at the moment in the 170lb division and only the standouts will have a place on the roster. Lennox will be tough and aggressive enough to control the opening stages as he outworks Pyle in the striking, but in the second round ‘Quicksand’ will draw him into his world and nick the submission to gain a stay of execution in the Octagon. Pyle, submission, 2^nd round.

Brad Wharton’s Verdict: Pyle has been having more success in Hollywood than in the cage recently, coming off a staring roll in the ‘straight to DVD’ classic Universal Soldier 4: Regeneration. He got his ass handed to him by Andrei Arlovski in the movie, and hasn’t faired much better in his UFC career of late, having been finished in two of his three outings for the promotion. Unfortunately for Pyle, he’ll be facing a finishing machine in Jesse Lennox, a man who has earned all his victories without the aid of the judges. As apt at taking victories with his fists as he is with his submission skills, Lennox will plough his opponent into the mat before exploiting his porous submission defence with a late rear naked choke. Lennox, submission, 2^nd round.

Phil Simkin’s Verdict: Both men go into this fight in desperate need of a win after suffering losses in their last octagon outings. Pyle has made one more UFC appearance than Lennox, with his only win against Chris Wilson sandwiched between losses to Brock Larson and Jake Ellenberger. Lennox lost a unanimous decision to Rick Story in January but won, albeit in controversial circumstances after an accidental headbutt, against Danillo Vilefort at UFC 101 August 2009. I expect this fight to go the three rounds, but with Pyle’s experience being the decisive factor. Pyle, decision.

Stay tuned to MMABay.co.uk in the coming days for a breakdown of the main card of ‘UFC 115: Liddell vs. Franklin’, which airs at 3am on Sunday, 13^th June for fans in the U.K on ESPN UK.

By Steve Davies